Can This Small-Cap Fund Deliver 20%+ CAGR Over 5 Years? A Deep Dive

Brokerage Free Team •July 23, 2025 | 5 min read • 335 views

 1. Fund Overview: What Is It?

The Motilal Oswal Small Cap Fund (MOSCF), launched in December 2020, is a high-conviction equity scheme that seeks to invest in emerging Indian businesses with scalable growth potential, primarily from the small-cap universe.

Despite being a relatively new fund, it has quickly garnered attention thanks to its focused portfolio strategy, agile sector rotation, and backing by one of India’s most respected fund managers.

Quick Facts (As of July 2025):

  • AUM: ₹6,200 crore+

  • Category: Small-Cap Fund

  • Benchmark: Nifty Smallcap 250 TRI

  • Fund Manager: Vinit Sambre

  • Expense Ratio (Direct Plan): ~0.59%

🧠 2. Fund Manager Strategy: The Vinit Sambre Playbook

Vinit Sambre is a seasoned small and mid-cap investor, with a proven track record at Motilal Oswal Midcap 30 Fund. His approach hinges on:

  • Bottom-up stock picking

  • Focus on companies with:

    • High ROCE/ROE

    • Low debt

    • Scalable business models

  • Long-term compounding, not short-term rotation

This philosophy results in a low-churn, high-conviction portfolio where businesses are allowed to mature through cycles.

📈 3. Return Performance: Beating Benchmarks Consistently

Period MOSCF (Direct) Nifty Smallcap 250 TRI Category Avg
1 Year 55.2% 44.1% 41.8%
3 Year CAGR 38.6% 30.4% 28.7%
Since Inception (Dec 2020) 34.1% 25.3% 23.9%

Highlight:
The fund has consistently outperformed both the benchmark and most peers, driven by early identification of breakout sectors like capital goods, textiles, and auto ancillaries.

⚠️ 4. Risk Analysis: Measured Aggression

Metric Value Interpretation
Standard Deviation 21.4% High volatility, expected in small caps
Sharpe Ratio 1.28 Excellent risk-adjusted returns
Beta 1.03 Slightly more volatile than index
Max Drawdown (3Y) -16.5% Better drawdown control than peers (avg -22%)

📉 Downside Resilience:

  • During mid-2022 correction, the fund held up better due to higher allocation to export-oriented companies and selective exposure to domestic cyclicals.

  • Avoided major value destructors seen in other portfolios (e.g., over-leveraged micro-caps or speculative penny stocks).

💰 5. SIP vs Lump Sum Returns

Scenario: Invest ₹10,000/month (SIP) or ₹3.6 lakh lump sum in Jan 2021

Investment Mode Value by July 2025 XIRR/CAGR
SIP ₹8.65 lakh ~29.1% XIRR
Lump Sum ₹11.83 lakh ~34.2% CAGR

Conclusion:
While SIP smoothened volatility, lump sum delivered higher returns due to a well-timed post-COVID rally in small caps. The key takeaway is the fund’s ability to compound capital rapidly when held through cycles.

🧩 6. Portfolio Deep Dive: Smart Bets in India’s Growth Engine

🔍 Top 5 Holdings (as of July 2025):

Stock Sector Allocation Insight
J.B. Chemicals Pharma 5.2% Benefiting from export-driven demand and chronic therapies
Gokaldas Exports Textiles 4.8% Riding global supply chain shifts from China to India
KEI Industries Industrial 4.5% Strong proxy for India’s infra and real estate capex
Suprajit Engg. Auto Ancillary 4.1% Leveraging auto recovery and EV opportunities
CCL Products FMCG (Coffee) 3.8% Global B2B coffee leader with pricing power

🧠 Investment Style:

  • Focus on companies with operating leverage, sustainable ROCE >15%

  • Export-oriented or import-substituting businesses

  • Under-researched companies, often outside the radar of large AMCs

  • Sector rotation from domestic consumption → capex revival → niche exports

🔮 7. Growth Outlook: Structural Tailwinds

Why This Fund Is Well-Positioned:

  1. Capex Cycle Revival: Heavy allocation to capital goods, building materials

  2. Export Renaissance: Textiles, pharma, coffee—all showing rising global demand

  3. PLI & China+1 Strategy: Key holdings benefit from Make-in-India push

  4. Digitization & Formalization: Smaller firms becoming more competitive, margin-accretive

Projected Outlook:
If India’s GDP grows at 6–7%, MOSCF’s small-cap picks could compound wealth at 18–22% CAGR over 5–7 years, with volatility—but also upside convexity.

🧭 8. Macro & Regulatory Risks

Key Risks to Monitor:

  • SEBI reclassification norms or changes in small-cap definitions

  • Interest rate hikes, which impact capex-heavy small caps

  • Liquidity tightening may hurt FII inflows to small/micro-cap space

  • Valuation Risk: Some stocks are trading at 40–50x P/E, requiring earnings to catch up

Fund Mitigation:
The fund has shown flexibility in exiting frothy names and rotating toward defensible balance sheets.

🤝 9. Peer Comparison: Who’s Leading?

Fund Name 3Y CAGR Volatility Sharpe Portfolio Size Expense
Motilal Oswal SCF 38.6% 21.4% 1.28 ~25 stocks 0.59%
Quant Small Cap 42.7% 30.2% 1.05 ~70 stocks 0.74%
SBI Small Cap 31.8% 20.6% 1.02 ~55 stocks 0.71%
Axis Small Cap 25.3% 19.5% 0.91 ~40 stocks 0.62%
Nippon India Small Cap 28.4% 24.1% 0.87 ~130 stocks 0.69%

Peer Differentiator:

  • MOSCF has the highest risk-adjusted return with a tight, focused portfolio, while Quant is momentum-driven and Nippon offers maximum diversification.


🎯 10. Strategic Takeaways for Investors

✅ Ideal for:

  • Investors with 7+ year horizon

  • Those seeking wealth creation via compounding

  • Comfortable with market cycles and 15–20% drawdowns

❌ Avoid if:

  • You need funds within 3 years

  • Prefer low-risk, consistent-return funds like large-cap or hybrid

  • Emotionally impacted by short-term NAV drops

🔄 Suggested Strategy:

  • SIP for risk mitigation, lump sum in corrections

  • Rebalance every 3–5 years toward multi-cap or large-cap to manage risk

🧠 Final Verdict: A Strong Contender for Long-Term Alpha

The Motilal Oswal Small Cap Fund – Direct Growth has emerged as one of the top-performing and most consistent funds in its category since launch. Its combination of quality bias, focused bets, experienced fund management, and favorable macro trends positions it as a strong core holding for investors looking to tap into India’s growth below the large-cap radar.

For the patient and informed investor, this could be one of the best small-cap bets of the decade.

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